Scientists say Instagram can predict our next top model

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Everyone wants to know who will be fashion’s next top model — and now a group of American scientists have the answer.

Researchers at Indiana University say they can predict the popularity of new models with over 80 per cent accuracy, using advanced computer technology and data from Instagram.

“Social media is changing the game dramatically,” contributing researcher Giovanni Luca Ciampagliasaid in a statement. “Traditionally, models don’t interact with consumers; but now their online activity plays an important role in popularity and, ultimately, success.”

IU scientists gathered statistics on 400 fashion models from the Fashion Model Directory, a major database of professional female fashion models, tracking hair and eye colour, height, hip, waist, dress and shoes size, modelling agency and the number of runways walked.

They then analysed the models’ Instagram accounts — the number of followers, number of posts per month, number of likes and comments on those posts, and whether these comments were generally positive or negative. Data for the study was collected in fall 2014.

To test the strength of their theory, IU researchers chose 15 models listed on the Fashion Model Directory as “new faces”. Of the eight models expected to achieve the greatest popularity, six were accurately identified. Of the seven predicted to score lowest in popularity, six were also accurately identified.

“Popularity” was defined as the number of runway shows the model walked in during the Autumn/Winter 2015 shows in February and March. According to the scientists, the six most popular new models of the Fall/Winter 2015 season were Sofia Tesmenitskaya, Arina Levchenko, Renata Scheffer, Sasha Antonowskaia, Melanie Culley and Phillipa Hemphrey.

So what helps nab models a coveted spot on the runway? Lots of likes and comments, frequent posting and height — those an inch above average height roughly doubled a model’s chance of appearing on the runway.

And the scientists found the fashion industry still prefers thinner bodies — larger dress, hip and shoe sizes were all factors that set a model back, said contributing researcher Giovanni Luca Ciampaglia.

“Our analysis suggests that Instagram is as important as being cast by a top agency in terms of its ability to predict success on the runway,” said Emilio Ferrara, a computer scientist at the University of southern California who conducted the research.

Mr Ferrara pointed to Kendall Jenner as the poster girl for this process. The 19-year-old has 36.4 million Instagram followers and in 2015 has landed huge contracts with Estee Lauder, Calvin Klein, as well as walking for Chanel, Alexander Wang and Marc Jacobs during Autumn/Winter 2015 Fashion Week.

“We chose the fashion industry for this research because it represents a strong ‘winner-take-all’ mentality,” Ferrara said.

“This aspect of survival of the fittest, plus the large amount of statistical data on professional models, makes it a perfect subject for advancing research on ‘the science of success.’”Read more at:backless evening dresses